Don't blame me, I voted for the other guy. (Politics General)

The polls were almost entirely right, they didn’t account for Comey’s fuckery at the 11th hour tilting the margin of error all the way to one side in a handful of states Trump won by a few thousand votes each.
 
2016 also had a very unlikable known candidate, Clinton, vs a semi-unknown outsider many on the left didn’t take as a serious contender. That’s a very different situation now, where Biden may not be outright liked, but there’s no real major dislike; meanwhile Trump is a very well known candidate and very much disliked, leading to people voting for Biden more as a vote against Trump.

@Dustcan  

 
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/philadelphia-police-smash-windows-suv-carrying-mom-baby-video-while-n1245476
 
Her son (2). Her nephew (16) was also in the car, but it was probably harder for police to pose for a photo with him.

@Background Pony #9A93  
My entirely lame joke is that Biden doesn’t have a Willie, a Johnson, or a Weiner to worry about.
 

I was playing around with the poll rankings of the swing states on 538.
 
With all polls ranked, they tend to be a 60/40 mix of blue and red. Shrink that down to just the A and B ranked polls, and you see a sea of blue.

Unfortunately, my ability to continue to answer is being blocked.

I know people are saying Trump could win again because he won in 2016 when nobody thought he had a chance, but his win was a perfect storm of a fired up base, an unpopular opponent, and cheating.
 

 
I just don’t see Trump catching lightning in a bottle again.

@Background Pony #0FE4
 
I’d argue it wasn’t even his base that won it for him.
 
His base gave him a nice solid floor to work from, but 30% of 45% of the population is hardly a winning percentage.
 
It was the moderates, swing, independents, and unaffiliateds that he was able to peel off from Clinton.

@Background Pony #0FE4  
Perhaps, but is there any real use thinking he won’t unless you’ll be depressed to hopelessness otherwise? We need everyone to vote like it really matters.

@DarkObsidian  
I have no idea what you are trying to accomplish by posting this in multiple threads, but if you are actually having a technical issue, please let us know what it is.

@Background Human  
He probably does, but he only get aroused like Trump, and most celebs and politicians- from cheating.

@Background Pony #9A93
 
The amount of historical revisionism in that post is unbelievable. All the polls and the policy wonks in the media said that Clinton’s victory was assured. I share the Chapo Trap House host’s immense frustration at liberals trying to relitigate the 2016 election with horseshit about what the polls really said in a vain attempt to cover up how blindsided they were by Trump victory. It’s basically the new Russiagate for the less deranged #Resistance democrats, where instead of it being The Russians™️, it was that everyone was misinterpreting the polls™️.
 
Also, the left despises Biden, and by and large won’t vote for him; so the idea that his potential voter pool has no major issues with him is a lie.

@Background Pony #9A93  
I don’t think we’ve ever had a candidate fail upwards like Trump has in 2016. But this isn’t 2016. It’s now 2020.

oop  
so the hunter biden shit just makes him look like a cool dude who smokes crack and has a big dick, I think this only helps biden?
 
Republicans are really concerned with making the man look cooler than he actually is.  
Like going from out of touch rich failson to based chad who smokes crack, the working class drug, not cocaine.

@Ebalosus
 
Except they were, and in some cases still are, misinterpreting the polls.
 
I don’t give a flying fuck what a media talking head thinks they’re saying. The data told otherwise.
 
When your average lead in a state is 2.8, and the average margins of error even out to around (+/-) 3.5 4ish you are not actually leading in the strictest sense. Polls measure a range not a point. The media, in its infinite stupidity, only ever report the mid-point.
 
I am getting real sick of would-be armchair statisticians in the media and elsewhere thinking they know what they’re talking about. The media and the national party were blindsided, yes, because they’re filled with idiots. Any autopsy of the polls will show that Trump had a decent chance of winning. Anywhere from 32 to 45%, which is pretty fucking good honestly. You have lower odds of hitting a double-bull in darts and I get one at least once or twice a game.
 
Trump benefited from a general polling error swing of about 3 to 5 points, which is within the margins of most national polls (which average around 4.5, give or take). Clinton, on the eve of election day, was “winning” by around 2.6 to 3 ish. A relatively uniform swing, while uncommon, is not rare.
 
 
You can sit there and disagree with me all you want, I’m fine with that. But I do fucking stats for a living, and I am getting somewhat tired of the but duh polls shit.

Early voting as already hit 63% of the total 2016 turnout. 12 states have exceeded 80% of their 2016 turnouts. 19 other have over 50%.

@Background Pony #9A93  
Source, please?

@Background Pony #3364  
Nevermind.

@Zincy
 
Even if I grant you that the statistics said what you’re saying, the “idiots in the media” are pushing the idea that the statistics state that Biden will win, which has an observer effect on the voting populous; and because perception drives reality, the media saying that a Biden victory is highly likely actually negatively impacts his chances of winning, just like last time. Why? Because reassures leftists that they don’t need to vote, and encourages Trump supporters to vote really hard.
 
If all the media is saying is stuff like “farmers aren’t voting for Trump because of negative outcomes over the trade war with China,” or “old people in Florida aren’t voting for Trump due to COVID,” or any other reason that Biden is going to win, then it doesn’t matter what the statistics actually say, because if the perception is that Biden is statistically likely to win, then that is what will drive reality. If Biden loses, then the liberal policy wonks will be relitigating the 2020 election like they’re relitigating the 2016 election.
 
As I’ve said before, I still think it’s coin-flip odd as to who will win, but definitely feel that Biden’s chances are lower than what those in the media are saying, both because of what’s discussed here, and because leftists are sitting this election the fuck out…again.

@Background Pony #3364  
>posted 4 months ago  
were you in a coma?

@dissociativity  
Kek, I often respond to two year old comments.

@Latecomer  

 
Can you prove that it wasn’t/isn’t a coincidence, then?
 
(And before you accuse me of being one, no, I am not a Trump supporter.)

@CaptainXtra  
w-why would they do this? I wonder how God feels about his creations?

@dissociativity  
No, yet I don’t see why I should care. Also, that really was a crackhead assertion made by tehwatever, and I am still sticking by that fact, regardless of how much stricter rule #0 has become.

Raw footage of mailroom in post office here in Miami Dade. Source revealed “mail in ballots are within these piled up in bins on the floor. Mail has been sitting for over week!.”
 
So instead of getting counted ASAP, they’re being left collecting some dust. Vote suppression.
 
Financial disclosures reveal postmaster general’s business entanglements and likely conflicts of interest, experts say